Ben's Thoughts

Feelin' Gooood

2007-03-19T09:31:00.000-07:00

I had a lot of time to get some long work outs in over the weekend since Janna was working for most of it. On Saturday, I braved a boring 26 mile trainer ride (watched Jackass the Movie, which was equally as boring). On Sunday, I did another 18 mile trainer ride and went out for a run right afterwards. It was so nice that I extended my run from 5 to 8 miles. So I ended up doing a decent brick early in the year. I am usually not destroying my knees until May.

I am REALLY looking forward to the triathlon/racing season! I have signed up for the Big Foot (olympic), Lake Geneva (olympic), and Porcupine (olympic) races thus far. Also thinking about getting a new bike, we'll see.

This Wedding Planning Stuff Is Crazy!!!

2007-02-26T17:35:00.000-08:00

Janna and I have gotten a lot of planning done, however we are still working on the music entertainment. I can not BELIEVE how expensive a DJ is in the Chicago area! We are talking a minimum of $1,200 for four hours of entertainment. That is $300 an hour! Nutty stuff... I still wish I could get Janna to get married Up North, but I know that is not going to happen! Everyone, but me, does not like the idea. Can not wait for spring to spend some weekends up there.

Flowers, photographer, ceremony, and so on are all pretty much figured out.

I finally got back into some sort of routine in regards to training. I have been spinning three times a week (average of 1 hr 20 min) and running four times a week (average of 6 miles). Nothing near what I should be doing or how much I was training last year. I will be signing up for the Big Foot and Lake Geneva tris this year. Also plan on doing the usual 5K and 10K races. Next big purchase is new components for my bike! Sick of all the old 105 components, on to Ultegra!

Well, the little Lebowski (Millie the beagle) is howling to go outside. Have a good one! Peace.

Soon to be wearing a ring...

2007-01-09T05:47:00.000-08:00

Janna and I are finally getting married this fall. We have started the preparations, which include booking the church, country club, flowers, etc.. I am absolutely amazed at how much has to get done and how expensive it all really can be. The wallet will be remaining in my pocket much of the summer since Janna and I will pretty much be paying for the whole thing.

On another note, I have been sucked into creating a myspace account. I still dislike it (very much), but have been pulled into it. If anyone reads this, open one so there are more normal people out there in the myspace community. I swear it was made for people stuck in high school or college.

It just keeps going up?!?!

2006-11-13T14:22:00.000-08:00

The stock market continues its nutty ride higher and higher, which is truly difficult to justify. Volatility has somewhat picked up, but still not making trading/life exciting enough. BUT, I am definetely not complaining since I would rather see stocks rise with my equity portfolio than fall.

Talking about a market that is not going up... housing. I am feeling very bad for friends/acquaintances that have just recently purchased homes, unable to ride any of the housing boom's wave higher. So many homeowners made good returns over the previous years that those left out, really were left out with how expensive homes now are. I have been trying to convince some to postpone buying this winter, as the market has a good chance of continuing to soften into late spring of 2007. Certainly do not want to be buying a top.

I feel good about the Dems taking control, Washington definetely needs a shake-up. Hopefully, the senate and congress can actually get something done.

What I am thankful for...

2006-10-23T16:44:00.000-07:00

Having a wonderful family that can always get along, even on six-hour road trips.
Loving and being loved by a girl I look up to more than she knows.
Really enjoying what I do for a profession. It is a wonderful feeling to be creating something not many others do (or know how to do) and is used by some of the most important people in the world.
Owning my own home.
Having a wild dog that can not stand still whenever I come home.
Being healthy and fit.
Having goals and surpassing them.
Never being satisfied.
Oh yeah, Borat the movie, should be hilarious...

Have a great week!

Up North In the Canoe With Millie

2006-10-14T08:42:00.000-07:00

How Dumb Can TV Game Shows Get?

2006-10-11T18:24:00.000-07:00

I have never watched a full episode of Deal or No Deal. Nonethelesss, this past Monday I turned the TV on to watch the new show Heroes (fun show) and caught the last five minutes of Deal or No Deal. WOW! How stupid can a game show be? My dog could actually play the game! The commercials claim that it is a hit, and if it truly is, I find this news to be really, really depressing. The one individual I saw playing asked his buddy for help, who supposedly "crunched the numbers," since he is an engineer, and determined he should go for it. How complicated can it really be?

Markets are picking up in volatility, making life more exciting. Hopefully, it will continue now that the summer months are behind us.

Janna and I went "Up North" this weekend, which was fantastic. Cast a few times for a musky. Got out on the lake on the canoe. Hiked Wolf Mountain. Roamed the woods with Millie (dog). It was a great time and hopefully we will be spending more time up there in the future.

Have a great rest of the week!

Taking Time Off From a Long Distance Running Routine Isn't Smart

2006-10-04T10:50:00.000-07:00

About four weeks ago, I decided to give my legs/arms a break after a summer of swimming, biking, and/or running everyday but Monday. Every other day or so I have only been jogging 3 to 6 miles, sometimes skipping an extra day. Well, last night I set out to run 6 miles quite quickly (goal = 7 min 30 sec miles) and failed at it miserably. It is amazing how quickly one's endurance can slide! Well, I'll have to continue to take it easy for the winter OR start doing some more tempo and long distance runs. Mixing the two is not good. A part of me wants to really pull back on running and start to lift weights, I am sick of being thinner than a rail.

What is it with other people my age spending just about every dollar they make on things they do not need!!! I have gotten a few e-mails lately from friends (who do not make more than $100K/year), blowing their money on BMW's, wide-screen LCD TV's, boats, and vacations. One of my friends just got a bonus and decided to rush out and lease a BMW 5 series. He actually leased it!!! Crazy stuff. I thought this would end once people realized that the housing market is in trouble and those ARM's are going to re-set. It is great to live in the moment, but we all need at least some savings.

P.S. I am a little jealous about the BMW 5 Series...

Lack of Volatility

2006-09-26T17:46:00.000-07:00

Well, for the most part, the markets have had a lack of volatility. Yen, bonds, copper, and so on can not seem to break their trading ranges or at least move with enough volume. Traders at major hedge funds and prop desks have been sent home for the foreseeable future. Yes, there have been a few markets making moves, but not many. OF COURSE, CNBC has to go nUtS about the DJIA making new all-time highs, I am sure it will fall tomorrow, since they have dubbed Wednesday, "New High" day.

This fits with my life at the moment, not much changing, not too much action. Not that I am having a bad time, just nothing dramatic is occuring. These lulls typicaly end with a bang, basically mean reversion of my life's volatility or excitement. I am just guessing at what it will be.

So, I have made a list of a few of the things (hopefully fun) I would like to do this fall/winter:
Ski out west (Whistler and Brekenridge) - did not do enough of this last year
Take Janna down to the Caribbean or Hawii
Continue to stay in good shape for tri's next year, but lift a few more weights
Look for a new house - hopefully the housing market will continue to bleed into the end of the winter
Maybe a new car?

Great Weekend "Up North"

2006-08-17T10:39:00.000-07:00

Had a great weekend "Up North" with Janna, Mark and Terra. If I could only get Janna to spend some mort time up there...

This weekend, heading to Medinah for the PGA Championship! Hopefully, Phil and Tiger will be battling to the end.

The Far Left May Be Going Too Far

2006-07-31T09:41:00.000-07:00

Last week's City Council (Chicago) vote to increase the minimum to $10/hr plus $3 in benefits is making some waves across the nation. The liberals I know are cheering, however I really believe they are forgetting the ramifications that this type of change will have on the poor in the inner-city. Article from today's WSJ:

Last week the City Council voted 35-14 to impose a hyper-minimum wage on "big-box" retail stores with more than $1 billion of sales. The new law will require the likes of Wal-Mart, Target, Costco, and Home Depot to pay every worker -- regardless of experience, education or skill -- a minimum wage of $13 an hour by 2010 ($10 in salary and $3 in health benefits). At least another dozen cities, including Washington, D.C., are considering copy-cat laws.

This means major U.S. cities are preparing to require minimum wages more than double the national minimum of $5.15 an hour. Incredible. The very places with the highest unemployment and lowest skilled workers are enacting laws designed to destroy their pool of entry level jobs. Not so long ago, desperate cities were trying to lure businesses by declaring themselves low-tax and low-regulation enterprise zones. Now with these wage and benefit mandates, the cities are declaring themselves anti-enterprise zones.
But losing these jobs and businesses appears to be the very intention of bill supporters. Left-wing activist groups such as Acorn are crowing that this hyper-minimum wage is so prohibitive it could keep out such corporate villains as Wal-Mart. Be gone you lousy $6-, $8- and $10-an-hour jobs!

What we have here is what liberals used to call the "red-lining" of poor neighborhoods, though this time by the left itself. Liberal advocates have long complained that banks, grocery stores and retailers charge higher prices or refuse to do business in inner cities. But now the very superstores that offer lower prices are being treated as unwelcome.

This seems to be another attempt to push an agenda that sounds great, but has a horrible impact on many. I know too many people that like to dream up wild ideas and argue and argue and argue that they are right without getting dirty and actually thinking about all of the potential outcomes. There are so many other things that could be done to help the poor in our major cities. I would post more, but have little time. Wild stuff...

Friday!

2006-06-30T05:30:00.000-07:00

I am very happy that it is Friday. This week was an interesting one, with the FOMC rate decision occuring yesterday (Thursday), the markets were incredibely slow Monday through Thursday (up to the release). Made for some tough trading to say the least. Friday has already been a bit different however.

as of two weeks ago, I have stepped up my running, I am now moving my skinny ass no less than 5 miles every other day and plan on running 7-10 miles every Sunday going into the half-marathon in August. If I could only get into swimming ( I really need to), I would be set to do the olympic distance tri in September. Hopefully, I will do it, but I may not have much time during the late summer due to some VERY exciting things potentially happenning at work.

I have also started to be unhappy with my vehicle purchase last March, my co-workers drive such faster and fun cars (even the one's with the big "B's" on them, if you know what kind of car I am talking about).

Also, one question for the very few people who read this blog, should I buy the new Mac Book or a Dell laptop? The Mac dudes claim it can handle my trading software that requires Windows, but is this really the case?

Have a great 4th of July!

Almost a Victim of a Hit and Run

2006-06-14T05:31:00.000-07:00

I went out for my usual 4 mile run last night, which I planned on finishing in under 32 minutes. Everything was going perfectely by mile three, I was running 7 minute 20 sec miles, not too fast, but a respectable pace. Then, at the middle of mile four I heard some wheels squeal, so I turned around to see a Mustang and BMW flying down the road about 500 yards away. The Mustang decided to drift from curb to curb, creating a lot of tire smoke. About 50 yards away, he totally lost control while his buddy was going equally as fast about 20 feet behind him. So ultimately, the Mustang ended up flying right at me, completely backwards. I knew that if I jumped off the road, he would hit me, as he was on his way to crashing into a tree. If I sprinted for the middle of the road, the BMW would hit me. Fun stuff. So I just sprint as fast as I could down the road with my heart about to beat out of my chest! The mustang ends up missing me by about one foot. The guys glance at me, each with a beer in hand and then speed away. Crazy stuff!

Other than this wild encounter with drunken drivers, the past week was fantastic. Janna and I took a full week of vacation driving up the PCH in California. Finally, we took a vacation that included some exploring, I can not stand sitting next to a pool in 90 degree heat for days on end. I have always loved Santa Monica and San Francisco, two very different, but great places. The climate is fantastic, never too hot or humid. The people are fantastic as well, plenty of open-minded and laid back folks.

Of the few times that I have actually posted on this blog I have commented on the housing market. Well, looks like the snow ball is getting bigger and bigger.

Peace!

The Rich Have Their Hedge Funds and the Middle Class Have Their Houses

2006-05-18T05:31:00.000-07:00

The housing market is looking pretty sick here in the Midwest. I knew it was at its worst when I read that the majority of individuals purchasing $350,000 to $650,000 homes in my area were in their late 20's with incomes of less than $100,000. How is that possible?! It is going to be a sad state of affairs when their ARMs re-set and mommy and daddy need to bail them out. Here is one of the better quotes that I have seen lately:

The US has successfully transitioned itself to a bubbleocracy where
speculation is central activity of the economy. The rich and wealthy speculate
through hedge funds and private equity funds, the middle and upper classes
through real estate and the working class through lottery tickets and gambling.
From the lowest to the highest economic stratas of society, speculation has
become the central preoccupation of the nation. However, the most populous
economic strata in society is the middle class and hence the primary path to
being a bubbleocrat is still seen to be through speculation in real
estate.

Getting Back On Track Physically

2006-03-22T10:35:00.000-08:00

I have been slacking in regards to working out over the previous two months. I haven't been sleeping as well, thinking as clear, and so on since I stopped. However, over the past 3 weeks, I have been getting myself back on track. Three weeks ago, I went for a 4.5 mile run outside in the freezing cold that completely kicked my ass! They say that after two weeks of inactivity, you lose your base. I definetely lost most of it! My heart rate must have been well over 170/bpm even though I was only running 9 minute miles.

Since then I have been slowly getting myself back into the grove and capable of totalling 18+ miles per week. I have had hip and shin pains in the past when I have attempted to do some 7+ mile runs and have not prepared for them. I am back to running 5 mile runs at an 8:30 minute pace without much of a problem. Now, I just need to slowly expand upon that distance to be able to run the half-marathon this summer. I just hope that all of this focus on running does not hurt me in the triathlons I tell myself I am going to do.

Back From NYC

2006-03-14T18:07:00.000-08:00

I was in New York City for the better part of last week. The time spent in NYC went very well, I bettered some client relationships and did some great promoting of my research. I love actually creating a product and having many of the key decision makers in the industry making it a part of their trading strategies, etc.. However, the flight back was one of the WORST travel experiences I have ever had!!!

I got to NY La Guardia (the worst big-city airport, of which I travel to nearly every month) at about 5 PM to learn that my flight had been delayed to 8 PM. No problem, grab a beer and some grub and wait. Well, at 7:30 PM I am waiting to board and the gate staff report that my flight has been delayed until 10 PM. I basically sit around with absolutely NOTHING to do with just about one hundred Spring Breakers that are throwing frisbees over my head, ready for their excursions down to MTV's Spring Break in Cancun. I finally get onto the plane and arrive in Chicago at 1 AM. Since many other delayed flights were also landing at O'Hare airport, it was like U2 was throwing a free concert! My car was late, so I didnt get home until 2 AM. Fall asleep at 3 AM. Of course, I have to wake up at 5 AM to get back to work the next day.

The weekend went much smoother. I was very domestic and bought a new Persian rug and TV stand for the living room.

Lots of work to do this week, but I can not wait for a break later this month for some relaxation.

The Deed Is Done

2006-01-29T14:50:00.000-08:00

I finally purchased a car! I ended up buying an Acura TSX, a car that fits right in between the Honda Accord and Acura TL. Totally fun to drive, but lacks the speed of the TL. I went back and forth with the dealership on the TSX and TL. The negotiations ended with the TSX since they were willing to sell the car for just under invoice. So I saved myself nearly $6,000 over the TL. My head is very happy, but my heart wanted the TL. I have been really goofey lately, since I can have afford a Mercedes E55 if I want one. So it goes...

The best part is that I'll have more cash to go towards a new kick-butt condo. This suburb living is plain old booooooring. We'll have too many years in the future living in the burbs.

I'm quite the procrastinator!

2006-01-13T16:01:00.000-08:00

I am driving Janna nuts by not pulling the trigger and buying a car already! I keep digging and digging and digging, which makes me more and more confused. I have recently become a tight-wad, which makes no sense after the year I had in 2005. It does not help that my car is in the shop as well. I planned to have the new car in my garage this weekend, however I got in a fender bender two weeks ago. I probably won't have my car back until next week.

Nonetheless, I have also been considering the Honda Accord EX V-6. I know, I know, not the most spectacular car, but costs almost $10,000 less than all of the other cars I am looking at. The Infiniti G35x and Acura TL are still at the top of my list. I looked into the BMW 3.30i lease, which is a sweet deal, but leasing is just not a practical thing for me since I can not write it off as a business expense.

Hopefully, I'll have a new car in my garage by next weekend, otherwise I'll probably get sucked into waiting until after the Chicago auto show.

Everything else is going very well. Business trips to Europe and Asia this Spring, should be fun.

Ohhhhh the Midwest...

2005-12-30T05:08:00.000-08:00

Every other week or so I go through a bout of being utterly upset that I still live in the Midwest. I get e-mails from friends who live in southern California or Colorado and grow very envious. Now I am not saying that I dislike the Midwest, it is simply a very naïve and different place from the “coasts.” Janna knows that I am mostly talk, but I wish that the firm I work for would pick up and move to San Francisco or Los Angeles! This cold and homogenous culture I need to get away from! Most of my college friends are living it up, skiing in the mountains, lying on the beach, etc. on the weekends. Well, Ill get back to normal next week…

On to other things, I am trying to figure out what kind of car to get. I want to be very sensible, as spending a lot of money or leasing a car is not. Here are my top two picks: Infiniti G35 and Acura TL. I can not seem to make up my mind. The Infiniti has a VERY beefy engine (298 hp / 270 lb-ft torque), but lacks the nice interior of my current car (Saab). The Acura TL has a beautiful interior and a well-built engine (258 hp / 230 lb-ft torque). What do you think? Other suggestions?

Xmas: Good Weekend

2005-12-27T06:15:00.000-08:00

Well, let me tell you, Janna and I have never been able to wait until Christmas to open our presents for each other. Janna can barely keep her gifts for me a secret. Christmas 2005 was no different.

This year Janna gave me a bike trainer, cycling computer, and UW sweatshirt. Very fine choices if you ask me. The bike trainer is fantastic, leaves no excuse to get some kind of work out in every day. I basically took the past three weeks off as most triathletes ( I pretend that I am one) do to recoup and get ready to continue base and weight training. I am going to get back into the groove this week. As for Janna, she got a Coach purse, designer boots, clothes, and more. She's happy as well.

Christmas Eve was spent at my parents, Christmas morning in Madison, and Christmas night with Janna's family. A nice low key Christmas.

Next is a ski trip out west to Breckenridge or Jackson Hole in a couple of weeks!!!

Too move or not to move, that is the question...

2005-11-28T17:01:00.000-08:00

The idea of moving closer to the city or actually downtown is being entertained by Janna and I. Living in the suburbs has its pluses and minuses. Not having to deal with the insane amount of traffic or having to pay an arm and a leg for food/housing is nice. However, I have to say I miss the culture and plethora of people my own age running amuck.

I think the suburban lifestyle should be put off until the whole "family thing" begins. There is plenty of time for owning a home in the burbs with a dog and nice family-type neighbors. While I am young I would like to live a more urban lifestyle with the theater and night clubs just a train or cab ride away. It may be a much more expensive lifestyle, but I think it would be one I would prefer.

Back in the game!

2005-11-21T18:13:00.000-08:00

I took the last of my antibiotics today and almost feel 100%. Tomorrow will be my first day back in the gym after nearly two weeks of no running or lifting. I feel like a complete slob and waste! I think the Chicago Tri is going to open up for registration soon (much earlier than usual), so at least I can feel better by signing up for it.

As for work, things really can not be going any better going into year end. VERY exciting times! Janna and I checked out some new houses being built in the 'burbs, a bit large for just the two of us (4,000+ sq ft), but may be a great investment to buy in a year or two if the housing market continues to cool off as it should. You have to feel bad for all those suckers with one to three year ARM's that will see MUCH higher mortgage payments over the next couple years as rates increase. We'll see how fast that happens though. I'll leave this discussion for those that really want to hear it.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Sick... It really sucks...

2005-11-10T05:26:00.000-08:00

Well, Im super sick and have been since Sunday. Somehow I ended up having a fever Sunday night that led to a horrible sore throat! Stupidly, I have been going against Janna and my doctor's good advice to stay home and rest. Every morning I have been waking up, unable to speak and drive to work. I get many, many phone calls with both Americans and Europeans laughing at me because I have to whisper on the phone. Fortunately, the bond market is closed tomorrow so I should be able to work from home. All I need is some sleep!!! Ugh...

Worst of all, I have not run or lifted in over a week. I know it's the off season and I should not really run all that much in the first place, but I feel so out of it without getting a four or five mile jog in every couple of days.

Ok, back to whispering on the phone.

"Baseball... People will come Ray..."

2005-10-21T10:12:00.000-07:00

I am probably the worst blogger in the world and anyone I had reading it has probably lost hope. Nonetheless, I'll pretend I am a timely and insightful blogger.

I spent the past two days running around New York City visiting clients. Getting up at 3 AM and then meeting with numerous managing directors of prop desks and hedge funds is a bit stressful! Going out and getting drunk with them at night is crazy! It's a completely different world from the good old days of drinking at Brats or the "terrace" with bills not exceeding two digits. Going from bar to bar throwing around mucho (and I mean mucho) dinero on food and booze is not something I am accustomed to. Hanging out in apartments that have 360 degree views of NYC makes me a bit jealous of the owners, especially when they are my age. I'm getting there though.

On to another subject, the ChiSox are in the World Series. I absolutely HATE baseball, but find myself watching all of the games, I guess it is the Chicagoan in me (even though I live in the burbs). Hopefully, I'll actually watch the Badger game this weekend!

Peace!

My opinion article in the local paper...

2005-09-07T05:43:00.000-07:00

This was written in respone to a gentlemen calling for everyone to boycott gas stations by purchasing nothing (no food, beer, etc.) but gas.

To the Editor:

Re: Past the gas pump.

There appears to be mass confusion regarding pricing by gasoline and oil companies.

The oil companies themselves do not dictate the price of oil; supply (somewhat controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and demand cause oil to rise and fall.

For example, crude-oil prices more than likely will rise, as oil production has fallen 92 percent and gas output has been cut by 83 percent in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Katrina.

Some of the other major pressures on gasoline include Chinese demand and the lack of supply.

Most do not realize that oil costs about the same everywhere in the United States, but the differences in per-gallon prices are created by fuel regulations.

Federal and state regulations on components put into gas increase production costs from these base prices (of which crude oil is half of these costs).

Chicago's rules are some of the most strict in the country. So, why protest the oil companies and not those including a 20 percent tax on your gasoline? That comes to nearly 60 cents for the now $3 a gallon prices.

Because Chicago's refining capacity is limited, any little disturbance such as the hurricane can cause prices to soar.

The oil companies and gas stations do not simply decide to hike prices to take advantage of drivers; they follow the supply and demand of the products they sell.

If one's costs for making watches went from $5 a watch to $40 a watch due to an increase in the components, I would think the maker would increase the sales price to match or better the costs.

Placing all of the blame on the oil companies is misguided.

Busy Bee...

2005-09-02T05:48:00.000-07:00

I have not visited a blog or checked my own in over a month, which explains how busy I have been both at work and home. Somehow though I find time to watch Big Brother, what a waste of time!!! Since this January I began the quest of getting into great, great shape, which has worked, but eaten a HUGE amount of my time away! I can not complain though, the people I have met along the way are amazing and I am feeling better than ever. However, I will never be Lance Armstrong, which aggravates me. Much of my hard work will culminate this weekend as I am competing in the Lake Geneva Triathlon (Olympic Distance)!!! Should be very good times. Nothing like being in good shape and comfortable with life.

Oh then there is work, which consumes a good ten to twelve hours per day. The day after the tri Ill be on my way to New York for a week during, yes, the week of September 11th! The World Summit for the United Nation is that week as well and my hotel is all but three blocks away. Ill be meeting with some of the larget hedge funds / investment bank managers in the world, should be wild and a great opportunity. I love to visit the city, but it gets to be a bit too much after a week. In all honesty, I'd rather be Up North on the lakes or in the mountains.

China Revalues Yuan, at least sort of

2005-07-21T05:54:00.000-07:00

China has finally announced a revaluation of the
Renminbi and no one should be terribly surprised.

My first responses to the news:

1. This is a very small change... only 2% and that is far, far
too little to have any major effect upon the imbalance of trade.
2. We are confused as to the "basket" that shall be used, and we
wonder why it is that China is revaluing its currency against the
dollar and then tossing the dollar out, only to replace it with a
basket whose value has not yet been set.
3. This is very bearish of US debt, for even though the change is
only 2% this will eliminate a good portion of the intervention efforts
the PBOC has been undertaking to hold the Renminbi steady and
thus reduces demand, at the margin, for that debt.
4. This is modestly bullish of most US equities for it will increase
(slightly) the demand for US produced goods, but this is very
bearish for Wal-Mart and others who buy low end goods from
China.
5. This is bullish for commodities generally for they have suddenly
become 3% cheaper for Chinese buyers, and it is likely
especially so for crude oil.

Mr. Chairman, You Can't Control China. So Just Relax.

2005-05-23T05:42:00.000-07:00

It is sad that even Ben Stein understands the economy's troubles and Greenspan does not!

By BEN STEIN
Published: May 22, 2005

To: Alan Greenspan
Chairman, Federal Reserve Board
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. Greenspan:

You have always been a great friend to the little Stein family. You invited us to your viewing of the Fourth of July fireworks for many years. You spoke warmly and kindly of my father on his 80th birthday and after his death. My father, an economist like you, often said that you were the best Fed chairman ever. And I am sad that you will soon retire.

In the same spirit of friendship that you have shown to my family and to the nation and world, I hereby offer you some possible mental and emotional relief on two perplexing economic and monetary policy issues.

First, you recently pronounced that you were puzzled by what you called the "conundrum" of why long-term interest rates were so low, as the economy gathered steadily more strength and as inflation heated up, albeit to a lukewarm temperature.

May I suggest a reason for the low long-term rates? It has to do with a certain circularity in the world flows of capital. American consumers and businesses buy far more from the Japanese and the Chinese than the United States sells to them. The difference is in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. The Asians do not respend this money in America by buying Big Macs. Instead, they use a large chunk of it - again, hundreds of billions - to buy Treasury bonds.

That creates a floor under the dollar, keeps their own currencies low and makes their products very competitive. But this voracious buying of Treasury bonds - at varying lengths of maturity - keeps a high floor under bond prices as well. That, in turn, keeps the interest rate low, because interest rates move inversely to bond prices.

In other words, interest rates are suppressed at very low levels by the recycling of the trade deficit into Treasury bonds. It may be just that simple.

In turn, this keeps the mortgage rates low, props up the amazing housing boom and starts to affect commercial real estate in a big way, too.

Maybe I am missing something here, but this is at least a possible answer to your conundrum.
Second, there has been much speculation in the financial press and in the groves of academe to the effect that the inflation, such as it is, is caused by the rise in oil prices in recent months and years. At my local gas station in Beverly Hills, self-service - yes, self-service - high test is now $3.22 a gallon, so I believe that the concern is real. But why will raising interest rates to slow down American growth affect those oil prices?

As we both know, much of the increased demand for oil in recent years has come from the soaring Chinese economy. If Chinese demand is setting oil prices at the margin, why bother curbing the already-slowing American economy to lower oil demand? It can't be so that slower demand here will slow the Chinese economy, too. American interest rate changes will have a tiny effect on China, because slower demand would have to work through many layers of currencies, exports and lack of replacements.

So maybe we have had enough effort at curbing the United States' economy, and we should just let the slow processes of price elasticity work their magic and find substitutes for oil.
To put it another way, why cut down growth in America if that growth has nothing or little to do with the causes of inflation? It may be that this is a case beyond the control of monetary policy in the United States. It is probably not even remotely beyond the reach of Chinese monetary policy.

But why punish the small-business owner in Canton, Ohio, because a large business in Canton, China, is demanding more oil and can pay for it? Why put us even remotely at risk of recession over a cause for inflation that is, like the computer on which I am writing this letter, made in China?

IT may be better to keep a close eye on the housing situation. In Florida, buyers are lining up at new developments to buy three houses or condominiums at a time - and I was told while I was at a conference on finance in Key Biscayne two weeks ago that some developers are demanding that the buyers kick back a share of any gains made on flipping the homes within a year.

This has the distinct look of something that should not be happening. Good, solid homes for people to live in: that's fine. Their prices should go up. Limo drivers in Key Biscayne speculating in property on no money down? That does not look like a good harbinger.

By any chance, are your interest rate increases aimed at this issue? If so, I don't think they'll work as long as China and Japan are distorting interest rates downward. Maybe the bubble in resorts has to burst all by its bad self.

Anyway, these are my humble thoughts. They may well be wrong.
And wherever you go after leaving the Fed, we shall miss your sensible hand at the tiller. And the fireworks.

Respectfully submitted,

Ben Stein

Interesting take on environmentalism

2005-05-05T11:18:00.000-07:00

Think of it as a merging of Pinchot's and Muir's feelings on environmentalism. Preservation can only take us so far.

To Preserve Forests, Supporters Suggest Cutting Some Trees

Using Local Wood, HarvestedBy 'Sustainable' Methods,Will Help Planet, They Say
Biggest Rebound in 1,000 Years

By JAMES P. STERBA Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNALMay 5, 2005; Page A1
WESTON, Mass. -- To understand the latest threat to one of the largest naturally reforested regions on the planet -- the Northeastern U.S. -- it helps to drop in on "volunteer day" in the town forest of this wealthy community outside of Boston.

A local tree surgeon gives chain-saw lessons. Brian Donahue, a college professor, offers log-splitting tips. Volunteers stack split wood to dry. The logs are from a handsome black oak, perhaps 70 years old, dismembered with a chain saw two days earlier while a class of Weston High School seniors watched. Each year, the town topples about 200 trees in its 1,700-acre forest and sells them, mostly for firewood, but occasionally for lumber.

No, this isn't the threat. Just the opposite. Weston's token logging effort was designed to teach children and their parents that it's OK, even wise, to cut down local trees and use them.

That's a tough message to sell in exurbia, the semirural areas where affluent Americans are moving in growing numbers. Most of these newcomers abhor tree-cutting, foresters say. But Mr. Donahue, a 49-year-old environmental historian at Brandeis University, has been selling this message for 25 years in Weston: The best way to save forest and farm land from developers is to get local residents to value it by using it in a hands-on way. They become part of a "working landscape" like farmers of old, he says.

Obesity...

2005-05-04T05:24:00.000-07:00

Former President Clinton announces initiative to combat childhood obesity

May 3, 2005, 3:05 PM EDTNEW YORK -- Former President Bill Clinton and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee joined with the American Heart Association on Tuesday in announcing a campaign to fight soaring rates of childhood obesity that they said could doom youngsters to heart disease, diabetes and shortened lifespans.

"The truth is that children born today could become part of the first generation in American history to live shorter lives than their parents because so many are eating too much of the wrong things and not exercising enough," Clinton said.

This is a very, very serious problem. I see it everyday and everywhere I go. I can not think about McDonalds, etc. food without gagging, why do people do this to their children or themselves for that matter?! Some blame it on computers and the lack of activities children involve themselves in, however it simply comes down to the parents, as their choices will ultimately impact their children. So Timmy is overweight due to eating too many Twinkies and Coke, lock the cabinets and get him to play outside! I do understand that some people are genetically predisposed to being overweight, however this is a very minute percentage of those that are obese. It's great that numerous hospital systems and politicians are recognizing this and trying to make a difference.

Only in Wisconsin (or maybe Kentucky too)...

2005-04-13T05:52:00.000-07:00

It looks as if this strange hunting season may actually pass. Im curious, what type of gun will really be used? I can not hlpe but think that these hunters will be running around with shot guns!

Wisconsin takes step to OK wild cat hunts

MADISON, Wisconsin (AP) -- Although Wisconsin residents have voiced their support for a plan to legalize wild cat hunting, some legislators and cat lovers say they will continue their fight.
The proposal would allow licensed hunters to kill free-roaming cats, including any domestic cat that isn't under the owner's direct control or any cat without a collar, just like skunks or gophers -- something the Humane Society of the United States has described as cruel and archaic.
Outdoor enthusiasts approved the proposal 6,830 to 5,201 at Monday's spring hearings of the Wisconsin Conservation Congress, a citizens' advisory group.
The results, released Tuesday by the state, get forwarded to the Natural Resources Board for its consideration. Ultimately, though, any measure would have to be passed by the Legislature and signed by Gov. Jim Doyle.
Two state senators -- Scott Fitzgerald and Neil Kedzie -- are promising they'll do everything they can to keep the plan from becoming law.
Kedzie, who chairs the Natural Resources and Transportation Committee, called the issue "a distraction from the main tasks we have at hand."
"I don't see a whole lot of momentum for it," Kedzie said. "It's not the responsibility of the DNR to regulate cats."
Fitzgerald, co-chairman of the Legislature's powerful Joint Finance Committee, said he will "work against any proposed legislation to legalize the shooting of feral cats."
At least two other upper Midwestern states, South Dakota and Minnesota, allow wild cats to be shot -- and have for decades.
Every year in Wisconsin alone, an estimated 2 million wild cats kill 47 million to 139 million songbirds, according to state officials. Despite the astounding numbers, the proposal has been met with fierce opposition from cat lovers such as Ted O'Donnell.
O'Donnell, who gathered more than 17,000 signatures in an online petition to oppose the plan, was joined at Monday's meetings by scores of other animal lovers who held pictures of cats, clutched stuffed animals and wore whiskers.
Even Karen Hale, the head of the Madison Audobon Society, one of the largest pro-bird groups in the country with 2,500 members, voted no. She said the proposal was just too controversial, even though wild cats have reduced the state's bird population.

The good old days...

2005-04-07T05:59:00.000-07:00

After reading a friends post regarding the fantastic weather that we midwesterners have been fortunate to have this past week, it got me thinking about the good old days. Remember those days when you could just say, "screw it, class will be fine with out me" and head out to enjoy the weather? Ohhh... responsibity is a bitch. During those good old days, I would trudge up to Devil's Lake to rock climb and swim the afternoons away with friends. If I was really feeling the itch to get the hell out of town and spend some hour in the outdoors, I'd escape "Up North" to the cottage.

This whole growing up thing is a lot of fun, but I am starting to miss much of the spontaneity that used to be in my life. Im not complaining, I have a great job (that I like very much) and make plenty of money, however the daily routine does not change as much as it did the past. Well, better get back to watchin' the markets...

See why I moved out of the city???

2005-03-31T05:41:00.000-08:00

Drivers stuck in the slow laneChicago's commute among worst in U.S.
By John McCormickTribune staff reporterPublished March 31, 2005

Chicago remains the Second City when it comes to commute times, a gas-guzzling and time-wasting distinction that city officials recently vowed to try to change.But for now, city residents face the second-slowest commute among the nation's largest cities, behind only New York, according to new rankings released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.The average one-way commute for Chicago residents is 33.2 minutes, essentially unchanged from the 33.1 minutes recorded in a 2000 census survey. Several area counties also reported average commutes of more than 30 minutes.The latest figures come from the American Community Survey, a relatively new census program that is expected to provide more frequent updates for certain questions that had traditionally been asked only once a decade.

Great article written by a colleague of mine

2005-03-24T06:39:00.000-08:00

Let Someone Else Squeeze Oil's Last

http://thestreet.com/options/futuresshocktsc/10214281.html

Short snip:

Everyone is familiar with the evolution chart, showing the path from a diminutive tree-swinging primate through various knuckle-dragging beefcakes and on up to the present-day pinnacle of homo economicus. Economies evolve as well.
The energy economy is still in the hunter-gatherer stage. We hunt deposits of petroleum, natural gas, coal and uranium, or to a much lesser extent, we gather sunshine, wind, hydroelectric and other non-fossil sources.
One consequence of hunting and gathering, as noted in last week's mention of Hubbert's Curve, is diminishing return on investment. This is the dilemma faced by the current oil and gas industry. The futures market expects prices to continue to rise, and prices must continue to rise if we are to stimulate both new production and increased efficiencies of demand. However, the inescapable consequence of diminishing returns is that the present high returns for oil companies simply are not sustainable, for reasons enumerated last week.

They are FINALLY admitting that their own "Stability Pact" is coming back to haunt them!

2005-03-21T06:24:00.000-08:00

I do not need to offer a link, as this story has been all over the place. The 3.0% Deficit/GDP ratio and 60% total debt outstanding to current fiscal year's GDP rules that France and Germany have enforced so strongly on their much smaller neighbors, is now causing major problems for their own economies. What is sad is that these smaller and frankly, economically distressed countries, fought to fit France's and Germany's rules, only to see the enforcers back out themselves! The European community has lagged the US so badly that even the people of France want to back out of the EU (poll of 802 people showed that 51% will vote NO to the May 29th referendum).

The "Stability Pact" was the single most important reason for the Euro becoming a "reservable currency." The Euro is now slowly losing its status as the second most reservable currency.

Maybe its time to hedge those shorts by shorting Berkshire Hathaway, Buffet has a $21 billion bet against the dollar. Note that he has NEVER gotten a single currency bet right!

Its here... March Madness!!!

2005-03-16T06:29:00.000-08:00

The NCAA tourney pools have begun, so its time to start thinkin' about how to fill these damn things out. Ive put $100 into pools every year, only to lose horribly, yet still be able to choose the ultimate winner.

To me, Illinois looks all to beatable (Im a badger, there is no way I want to see them in St. Louis). UW-Mil will upset 'Bama. UNC could go all the way.

Click here if you too need help filling out your bracket.

Sorry for the lack of posting... Ive been ridiculously busy.

Quick Update:

Training is going great
The woman is doing fantasically in school
My dog is eating away my home
I need to do some travelling, or else Ill explode

Pro-Syrian steps down as leader of Lebanon

2005-03-03T13:29:00.000-08:00

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/28/news/lebanon.html

See... It's working....

15,000 troops will soon be removed from Lebanon. As goofy as Bush's tactics are, be it going on a solo mission or employing force, democracy is beginning to find its way to the Middle East. It has never, ever, been like this. I am simply getting frustrated with the media and diehard liberals who refuse to recognize this.

The next few years could be quite scary...

2005-02-25T06:13:00.000-08:00

As I drive to work through suburbia, I am starting to see more and more residents place their "For Sale" signs directly behind their white picket fences (gearing up for the Spring season). The vast amount of signs (many more than last year) is telling of the ease in which people could attain mortgages and the problems that will more than likely come to fruition in the future.

Consumer debt is at all time highs, yet people continue to whip out one of their five favorite credit cards to pay for "things" they can not afford. What is even more scary is the ease at which many of my friends have bought homes over that past year or two. With historically low rates since 2002, our money could be streched further to purchase homes that would have previously been out of our reach. I have friends who honestly make no more than 60K and are purchasing $250,000 homes with no or VERY little money down. To add to this, many are tricked into believing that an ARM will ultimately be cheaper for them since the first year (or more) of payments are much lower. Well, what happens when this "conundrum" that Greenspan has quoted during the last Humphrey Hawkins testimony works itself out??? Rate are inevitably going to rise, money managers are overwhelmingly short bonds, its a fact. When this comes to fruition there will be plenty of kiddies running to mommy and daddy because they can not come up with their mortgage payment or need money to pay off their loan when they go to sell their homes since the market has depreciated in the new higher rate environment.

This is truly scary and think there will truly be a nasty correction within the near future.

Building The American Dream ... Or Nightmare?

2005-02-25T06:06:00.000-08:00

The Economist - FANNIE MAE and Freddie Mac, the twin titans of America’s mortgage markets, think of themselves as big, friendly giants. They stand behind the mortgages of around three-quarters of America’s households—they “make home possible,” as Freddie Mac likes to put it. Their circle of friends does not, however, extend to the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Alan Greenspan. On Thursday February 17th, he told Congress that by letting these two agencies grow unchecked, “We are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk.” Very big but not so friendly, these giants could soon loom over America’s financial skyline like Godzilla and King Kong. Fannie Mae—originally the Federal National Mortgage Association, it now calls itself by its chummy Wall Street nickname—traces its origins to the credit crunch of the Great Depression, and government efforts to help families borrow to buy a home. Fannie Mae, and its smaller cousin, Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation), do not lend to budding homebuyers directly. Instead, they buy up the mortgages that other lenders offer, helping local banks and thrifts to distance themselves from the risks involved. Some of these mortgages are then bundled up and sold on: the agencies serve simply as middlemen. But a growing proportion are kept on the agencies’ balance sheets. Between 1997 and 2003, their combined holdings more than trebled, to over $1.5 trillion (see chart). The middlemen have got fatter and fatter. Why are they so financially retentive? To provide liquidity and stability to the American mortgage market, a Freddie Mac spokesperson told Reuters news agency. To make money, Mr Greenspan told Congress. Though the two agencies are owned by private shareholders, they are widely perceived to enjoy an implicit guarantee from the federal government. This lets the agencies borrow cheaply to buy mortgages, squeezing out any unsubsidised rival which has to stand on its own feet. Whatever the official position, since the two agencies are now so big, the federal government will in fact be forced to bail them out if things ever do go wrong. How might things run awry? As an asset, mortgages pose three risks: the interest rate can fall, the mortgage can be repaid early, or the homebuyer can default. To cushion themselves against these risks, the two agencies hold a reserve of capital. But in Fannie Mae’s case, this cushion was judged too threadbare by the agency’s main regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). It ordered Fannie Mae to raise its capital cushion by 30%. The two agencies thus stopped adding to their piles of mortgages at quite such a furious rate last year. But once this moment of crisis passes, Mr Greenspan says, the portfolios will grow again.

T minus 6 Months

2005-02-24T06:38:00.000-08:00

In no more than six months I will be attempting to complete, yes only finish, my first triathlon. The Chicago Triathlon will have roughly 7,500 fit athletes swimming 1 mile, biking 25 miles, and running even 6 more miles. First stop will be the Shamrock Shuffle in one months time, an easy and very fun 8K race. It has become a family tradition. Hopefully, Ill find some wacky 10K races this summer.

All of this training has got me thinking, why doesn't the government subsidize gym and fitness expenses? Really. People such as myself, spend the extra time throughout the week keeping our bodies in good working order and then some. Routine exercise is proven to limit the potential of illness and major disease. So why do we not get reimbursed for staying out of the health care system? It baffles me how some let their bodies go when a vasst majority of people have the time and ability to help themselves. All you have to do is get up and walk or change your eating habits, it truly is not that difficult.

Looks like Lance is going to go for it again!

2005-02-16T06:50:00.000-08:00

Armstrong aims for No. 7 this year

Hopefully the race is a bit more exciting this year.

Oh yeah... No state income tax is going to make me want to live in Iowa!

2005-02-14T10:59:00.000-08:00

Keeping Iowa's Young Folks at Home After They've Seen Minnesota -

NY Times

But $600, the average yearly state income tax for Iowan 20-somethings, is not enough to undo decades of social erosion. The problems Iowa faces are the very solutions it chose two and three generations ago. The state's demographic dilemma wasn't caused by bad weather or high income taxes or the lack of a body of water larger than Rathbun Lake - an Army Corps of Engineers reservoir sometimes known as "Iowa's ocean." It was caused by the state's wholehearted, uncritical embrace of industrial agriculture, which has depopulated the countryside, destroyed the economic and social texture of small towns, and made certain that ordinary Iowans are defenseless against the pollution of factory farming.

(snip)

There is not enough life in the small towns of Iowa to keep a young person, and there is no opportunity on the land. The state faces an excruciating paradox. It can foster economic development of a kind that devours farmland - the sort of thing that is happening around Des Moines. Or it can try to reimagine the nature of farming, with certain opposition from farmers themselves and without any help from the federal government, which has fostered industrial agriculture for decades.

If milking cows and slaughtering swine is your bag, god bless. But with the increasing efficiency of agriculture (while millions starve, we are now burning corn for fuel) and the lack of diversification of the economy of Iowa, I don't see a reason for the economy of rural areas like Iowa turning around without major government intervention.

Want to spy on your friends from a mile away and have the pictures too?!

2005-02-11T08:09:00.000-08:00

Check out this photo project. They have created a 1,000+ Megapixel camera. The pictures are really wild.

http://www.gigapxl.com

Definetely worth a read!

2005-02-11T07:12:00.000-08:00

IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU ARE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT!
KEEP IT GOING!!!!
2008 Election Issue!!
GET A BILL STARTED TO PLACE ALL POLITICIANS ON SOC. SEC.
This must be an issue in "2008" Please! Keep it going.
----------------------------------
SOCIAL SECURITY:
(This is worth reading. It is short and to the point.)
Perhaps we are asking the wrong questions during election years.
Our Senators and Congresswomen do not pay into Social Security and, of course, they do not collect from it.You see, Social Security benefits were not suitable for persons of their rare elevation in society.They felt they should have a special plan for themselves. So, many years ago they voted in their own
benefit plan.
In more recent years, no congressperson has felt the need to change it. After all, it is a great plan.
For all practical purposes their plan works like this:
When they retire, they continue to draw the same pay until they die.
Except it may increase from time to time for cost of living adjustments..
For example, Senator Byrd and Congressman White and their wives may expect to draw $7,800,000.00 (that's Seven Million, Eight-Hundred Thousand Dollars), with their wives drawing $275,000.00 during the last years of their lives.
This is calculated on an average life span for each of those two Dignitaries.
Younger Dignitaries who retire at an early age, will receive much more during the rest of their lives.Their cost for this excellent plan is $0.00. NADA....ZILCH....This little perk they voted for themselves is free to them. You and I pick up the tab for this plan. The funds for this fine retirement plan come directly from the General Funds;"OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK"!From our own Social Security Plan, which you and I pay (or have paid) into,-every payday until we retire (which amount is matched by our employer)-we can expect to get an average of $1,000 per month after retirement.
Or, in other words, we would have to collect our average of $1,000 monthly benefits for 68 years and one (1) month to equal Senator! Bill Bradley's benefits!
Social Security could be very good if only one small change were made.
That change would be to:
Jerk the Golden Fleece Retirement Plan from under the Senators and Congressmen. Put them into the Social Security plan with the rest of us
then sit back.....
and watch how fast they would fix it.
If enough people receive this, maybe a seed of awareness will be planted and maybe good changes will evolve.

How many people can YOU send this to?
Better yet.....
How many people WILL you send this to

It was only a matter of time really...

2005-02-10T05:55:00.000-08:00

So now what? We invade Iraq assuming they too have nuclear weapons with no real proof or admission, however, North Korea now admits to bolstering their program? We'll see how China's feelings change now.

North Korea claims nuclear weapons

Have to love Chicago attorneys!

2005-02-09T10:41:00.000-08:00

What kind of man steals a 7-year old boys dog and then won't give it back because he says he has given it to a nun?!

Lost dog, lawyer, crying boy: Story has everything

Test

2005-01-28T10:52:00.000-08:00

Test